SOLAR TODAY Blog

By Seth Masia
SOLAR TODAY managing editor

U.S. Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus last week announced that the Navy will reduce its fossil fuel use 50% by 2015. And by 2020, it expects to get 50% of all its energy from renewable sources.

This is a significant development. The Department of Defense accounts for about 2% of total U.S. oil consumption. About half of that goes to the Air Force, and about 75% of all DoD fuel goes to run vehicles (as opposed to heating and cooling buildings).

The Navy pushes its largest ships around with nuclear reactors, but it still burns a lot of diesel oil and jet fuel. The Marine Corps, officially on the Navy procurement budget, runs entirely on petroleum and testosterone.

Don't count on a return to the age of sail. The Navy plans to greatly expand its use of biofuels for aircraft, and improve the efficiency of heavy vehicles (including "littoral" or coastal vessels) through the use of diesel-electric hybrid drives. By 2016 it plans to have a "Great Green Fleet" battle group consisting of ships driven with no petroleum at all. (The name is a reference to the "Great White Fleet" dispatched by Teddy Roosevelt on a round-the-world tour in 1907-1909.)

The Navy will equip many bases with solar, wind, geothermal and tidal power generation facilities - as much for independence from the civilian grid as for carbon footprint reduction. It's conceivable that the Navy could become the technology leader in tidal-current power development.

The emphasis on biofuels is fascinating. Ethanol derived from corn or sugar is useless in formulating a substitute for Jet A and diesel fuel. Those concoctions currently come largely from canola oil. You may have reservations about competing with the Navy for salad dressing, but it sure beats boiling tar sands.

Another issue raised by Sec. Mabus: The Navy is worried about its future role in securing an ice-free Arctic Ocean. I wonder what it's planning to do for shore bases when  existing seaports have been submerged by two meters of sea-level rise?

November 26, 2008, 8:56 pm: Last month China's electricity production fell, for the first time in years. Because American and European consumers have stopped buying imported manufactures, China's industrial production is off sharply, with shut-downs in steel plants and other metal-smelting operations. To replace the foreign orders, China will pump almost $600 billion into their domestic consumer economy. They can do this more easily than we can because they actually have the cash. When we do a big stimulus package, we have to borrow it. Most of it from China.

One bright spot in all of this is that the cost of important commodities has plunged, and is likely to drop further. Copper and aluminum for electrical wiring, steel for powerline towers, even lead and lithium for whopping big batteries, are all going to be much cheaper for a few years. Now is the time to start building out that new smart grid and ramping up electric vehicle production.

On my way to work this morning I passed a gas station selling unleaded regular for $1.74. This makes me worry that folks are going to climb back into their SUVs. The polls say otherwise: Consumers are saving money everywhere they can now. The AAA forecasts that Thanksgiving travel will be down this weekend: air travel down 7.2%, road travel down 1.4%. If Americans drive over the river and through the woods in the smaller car, maybe gasoline purchases will drop 2% or 3% relative to Thanksgiving 2007.

Yesterday's New York Times contained a sobering assessment by Elizabeth Rosenthal on the impact of global economic turmoil on any progress toward a low-carbon energy future.

While Western governments seem determined to adopt meaningful carbon caps, she points out, several significant renewable-energy projects have already been stalled by the recent drop in the price of oil. One example: On Nov. 12, T. Boone Pickens announced he's putting his West Texas wind farm project on hold until energy prices rebound.

Serious recessions have usually suppressed energy use. This time around, the serious slow-down in Chinese industrial production will forestall the construction of new coal plants there, while reduced driving worldwide should cut carbon emissions temporarily.

An update from the do-it-yourself scrounger:

Electric commuting: I now have a couple of months' experience riding the Yamavolt electric motorcycle conversion to work and around town. The bike runs very nicely, thank you.

Real-world experience suggests that, in future, recharging infrastructure is going to be critical. I have no trouble riding to work and back because, thanks to our set-up at the office, I can recharge the bike in the warehouse. But running errands downtown is a problem, because I can't recharge while shopping. When this set of batteries poops out I'll invest in a NiMH pack to double the range.

The weekend saw plenty of frightening economic news, but the president-elect dropped an early Christmas gift on renewable energy.

On Saturday, Barack Obama outlined an economic stimulus package that will invest billions to rebuild roads, bridges and schools -- and to develop renewable energy. The projects are intended to save and create 2.5 million jobs over the next two years. He was expected to provide more details on Monday when he presents his team of economic officials and advisers.

What this means for renewables is that important government investments will be moved up for congressional action in January and treated as part of the administration's first-priority efforts, rather than proposed later as a separate energy-policy package.

Press release, 11/20/08: Today, Mayor Gavin Newsom, San Jose Mayor Chuck Reed and Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums announced a nine-step policy plan for transforming the Bay Area into the "Electric Vehicle (EV) Capital of the U.S." In conjunction with the news, Better Place, a global electric transportation company, announced that it would enter the U.S. market with California as its first state, beginning in the Bay Area.

"Our aim is to make the Bay Area - and eventually California - the electric vehicle capital of the U.S.," said San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom.

Commercial availability of electric cars is targeted to begin in 2012, and Better Place estimates its network investment in the Bay Area will total $1 billion when the system is fully deployed. The three Mayors said they welcomed Better Place's announcement and anticipate many other EV companies will focus on the Bay Area as a top-priority market.

With its request for another $25 billion bail-out, on top of the $25 billion they’ve already been promised to help with small-engine retooling, Detroit’s travails have turned into a black comedy. We’re asking the big car companies to improve CAFE standards and make plug-in hybrid vehicles. The infuriating thing is that they already build efficient small cars for sale in Europe, Brazil, Korea and China. Why not build those cars here? They want us to pay the costs of conversion, up front, because they don’t believe people will buy small cars. Right now they’re justified in believing that we won’t buy cars at all, at least not from Detroit.

In December, 1941, Detroit had just introduced the 1942 model cars. After Pearl Harbor the government asked them to build tanks, and then airplanes. They did it with enthusiasm and efficiency. The difference is that they had a qualified buyer: the government.

So here’s an idea. Let’s offer Detroit the $25 billion. For that price tag, we’ll expect the factories to replace the entire federal fleet — tanks, trucks, postal vans, limousines, Forest Service jeeps — with flex-fuel plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Last year, the feds operated some 642,000 vehicles. Subtract the 8,800 Abrams battle tanks, which would soak up the whole budget by themselves, and add a few hundred thousand vehicles for state and municipal fleets to round the production up to 1 million vehicles.  So $25 billion would replace the whole fleet for an average of $25,000 per. Not a bad wholesale price, especially when you figure in the fuel savings and then balance the cost of a Forest Service fire truck against a cheap sedan. A big chunk of the cost could be covered by selling off the old fleet to equatorial countries where palm-tree mechanics will happily convert them all to run on sugar ethanol.